00100	EVALUATION 
00200	
00300		The primary aim in constructing this model  was  to  explore,
00400	clarify, develop, test and improve -all with a model- a theory having
00500	explanatory value. To satisfy this aim, the model must meet norms  of
00600	internal    consistency   (systemicity)   and   norms   of   external
00700	correspondence with observation (testability). A secondary aim  would
00800	involve pragmatic norms of application.  These aims are not unrelated
00900	but the primary one is more  fundamental  since  useful  applications
01000	require some degree of consistency and correspondence to observation.
01100		As emphasized in Chapter  2,  a  model  in  the  form  of  an
01200	algorithm  consists  of  a structure of functions or procedures whose
01300	inner workings are  sufficient  to  reproduce  the  outward  symbolic
01400	behavior  under  consideration.   The theory embodied in the model is
01500	revealed  in  the  set of statements which illuminate the connections
01600	betweeen input and output, i.e.  which  describe  how  the  structure
01700	reacts under various circumstances.
01800		What constitutes a satisfactory explanation has been  treated
01900	in  2.1.     The "fit" or correspondence with facts of observation as
02000	indicated by measurements and empirical tests indicating  the  degree
02100	of  faithfulness  of  the  reproduction  were described in Chapter 6.
02200	Given that the model has met the above criteria, what does it  as  an
02300	artefact tell us about naturally-occurring paranoid processes?
02400		First, the model attempts to revisualize  or  reconceptualize
02500	the  phenomena  of  paranoid  disorders. They are not to be viewed as
02600	first-order "diseases" but as a mode of processing symbols  secondary
02700	to  a  primary  disturbance.  The  patterns  of  linguistic  paranoid
02800	behavior observed in an  interview  are  produced  by  an  underlying
02900	organized  structure  and  not by a variety of random and unconnected
03000	mechanical failures. Second, the underlying structure consists of  an
03100	algorithm,   an   organization  of  symbol-processing  strategies  or
03200	procedures. Third, the model as an analogy indicates that  to  change
03300	this structure, its procedures must be accessible to reprogramming in
03400	the higher-level language of the algorithm. Finally, as a  conceptual
03500	reform,  the  model  suggests  that  other types of psychopathologies
03600	might be viewed from a symbol-processing standpoint.
03700		Decision procedures for   consensus acceptability of a  model
03800	sometimes  depend  not  so  much  on  truth,  an elusive state, as on
03900	whether a majority of the  relevant  expert  community  believes  the
04000	theory  or  model to approximate truth to some unknown and unknowable
04100	degree and  to  be  better  than  available  plausible  alternatives.
04200	Validation  is  ultimately  a  private  experience of the individual.
04300	Empirical truth or falsity cannot be proven with certainty, but their
04400	presence  can  be  assayed  by  some  sort  of critical assesment and
04500	deliberation. We can forgive models for being only  nearly  true.   A
04600	theory or model may bring cognitive or pragmatic comfort, not because
04700	it is  TRUE  but  because  it  represents  an  improvement  over  its
04800	contending rivals.
04900		Cognitive comfort is a  type  of  intellectual  satisfaction.
05000	Pragmatic  comfort  accrues from applications to problems in order to
05100	make things work the way humans want  them  to  work  efficiently  in
05200	practical  contexts  of  technological  action. For the pragmatist, a
05300	model is a means to an end;  for  the  theoretician,  an  explanatory
05400	model  is  an end in itself. It is hoped that this paranoid model can
05500	contribute to understanding one of the mysteries  of  human  conduct,
05600	the  paranoid mode. There remains the enigma of the paranoid "streak"
05700	which renders whole nations  susceptible  to  idelogical  convictions
05800	in which Elsewhereans are believed to be malevolent oppressors.
05900		It  is  a  truism  of  methodology  texbooks that an infinite
06000	number of theories or  models  can  account  for  the  same  data  of
06100	observation.      Without   questioning   whether   "infinite"  means
06200	indefinitely large or just more than one, we  must  allow  for  rival
06300	explanations.  For a rival to be a live and tenable option, it should
06400	be truly alternative (i.e., not just a family version saying the same
06500	thing in a different way), and be confirmable or infirmable by tests.
06600		Although I  hold  that  faithful  reproduction,  fidelity  as
06700	measured  by  indistinguishability  along  specific  dimensions, is a
06800	proper and major test for the adequacy of simulation models, it would
06900	be a bonus if our model could satisfy the function of making possible
07000	new  knowledge  through  prediction.  The  term  "prediction"  has  a
07100	spectrum  of  meanings  ranging  from  forecasts  to   prognoses   to
07200	prophecies  to  precise  point-predictions in time.  To predict is to
07300	announce a fact without prior knowledge  of  the  occurence  of  that
07400	fact.   However one needs knowledge of the kind of fact expected, the
07500	conditions which produce it and the circumstances under which it will
07600	occur.    Accurate  long-range  predictions characterize the ideal of
07700	celestial mechanics. But even  astronomers,  with  the  advantage  of
07800	isolated  and  repetitive  systems,  have  their  troubles.  In  1759
07900	Halley's comet arrived four days later than predicted.   In spite  of
08000	our advanced 20th century knowledge, in 1962 this pesky comet arrived
08100	eight days later than predicted, making the prediction twice as bad.
08200		Long-range  predictions  of  individual  human  behavior  are
08300	difficult because (1) sufficient knowledge of initial conditions  may
08400	require  that  we  know  the  whole  past  history  of  an individual
08500	(something not yet achieved for even a single person) (2) individuals
08600	do  not remain isolated over the time stretch of the prediction; they
08700	interact with other individuals of an unknown nature (3)  life  is  a
08800	fortuitous flux of chance intersections of independent causal chains.
08900	In one sense our paranoid model  makes  moment-to-moment  predictions
09000	and  asserts  new  counterfactuals  about  behavior  in a psychiatric
09100	interview. That is, if an interviewer says X under conditions Y, then
09200	the  model's  response will be characterized by z1...zn, and the same
09300	holds true for paranoid patients.   Counterfactual  prediction  means
09400	that  on  the  basis  of  observed  behavior  we  are willing,with an
09500	inductive  risk,  to  assume  the  presence  of  unobserved  behavior
09600	potentials in a model's or patient's repertoire of capabilities.
09700		Predicting  new  kinds  of  events  or properties, instead of
09800	kinds we are already familiar with, would represent a genuine  bonus,
09900	indicating  the  model is more than ad hoc and has excess content. It
10000	would give both clinicians and investigators something to  look  for.
10100	This  novelty  could  arise  in  two  ways.    First, the model might
10200	demonstrate a property  of  the  paranoid  mode  hitherto  unobserved
10300	clinically.      In  principle  this could come about because the I-O
10400	behavior of  the  model  is  a  consequence  of  a  large  number  of
10500	interacting  hypotheses  and  assumptions chosen initially to explain
10600	frequently observed phenomena.    When the elements of such a complex
10700	conjunction  interact  with  highly  variable  inputs  they  generate
10800	consequences in addition to those  they  were  designed  to  explain.
10900	Whether  any  of these consequences are significant or characteristic
11000	of the paranoid mode remains a subject for future study.
11100		It  is  also  possible that a new property of paranoia may be
11200	discovered in the clinical  interview,  although  perhaps  everything
11300	that  can  be  said about paranoid dialogues has been said.  If a new
11400	property were found, a search  for  it  might  be  conducted  in  the
11500	model's  behavior. If successful, this again would add to the model's
11600	acceptability.
11700		A second novelty might arise in the behavior of the model  in
11800	some  new situation.   Since it is designed to simulate communicative
11900	behavior in an interview situation, the `new' circumstance would have
12000	to involve some new type of linguistic interaction to which the model
12100	is capable of responding. From its behavior one  might  then  predict
12200	how paranoid patients would behave under similar circumstances.   The
12300	requisite empirical tests and  measures  would  show  the  degree  of
12400	correspondence between patient and model behaviors.
12500		This possibility is of importance in considering emancipatory
12600	therapies  for  patients  tangled  in  the quandaries of the paranoid
12700	mode.    Since the model operates at a symbol processing level  using
12800	natural  language,  it  is      this  level  at  which linguistic and
12900	conceptual skills of clinicians can be  applied.   Language-based  or
13000	semantic  techniques  do not seem very effective in the psychoses but
13100	they are useful in states of lesser severity. A  wide  range  of  new
13200	semantic  techniques, including extremes, could be tried first on the
13300	model without subjecting patients to blind experimentation.
13400		While we have principally used the model to explore a  theory
13500	and  to study psychiatric judgements, its potential use as a training
13600	device has  not  escaped  our  reflections.    Medical  students  and
13700	psychiatric  residents  need  "disposable  patients"  to  practice on
13800	without jeopardy (to either). A version of  the  paranoid  model  can
13900	display  the  changes  in  its  inner  states  during  an  interview.
14000	Whether  the  optimal  goal  of  interviewing   (gathering   relevant
14100	information  without  upsetting  the patient), has been achieved, can
14200	thus be estimated.     A  beginning  interviewer  could  practice  in
14300	private or with a supervisor present. Many interviewers have reported
14400	that the model has a definite effect on them.    The student can  get
14500	the  feel  of  the  paranoid mode long before he interviews an actual
14600	patient.     The effect  of  various  interviewing  styles  might  be
14700	studied and compared.
14800	
14900		Although this simulation of  paranoia  covers  a  variety  of
15000	facts,  it  is  circumscribed  in  what  it  attempts to explain. The
15100	proffered explanation is local and restricted in that it accounts for
15200	only  one  type  of  symbol-processing mode.  Past attempts at grand-
15300	scale explanations of all  mental  processes  in  all  contexts  have
15400	failed.  A  preferable  strategy, successful in other sciences, is to
15500	build one circumscribed and tested theory or model at a time so  that
15600	the  field  can  gradually  move  forward a step at a time, each step
15700	gaining consensus before attempting the next.